http://hn.vernccvbvyi5qhfzyqengccj7lkove6bjot2xhh5kajhwvidqafczrad.onion/stories/38519877
Note that the rate of hull losses is basically flat - there were just about as many 474s lost in the 1970s, with only 200 hulls active, as there were in the 2000s with 1200 hulls active, and as there were in the 2010s with 600 hulls active. At worst logarithmic, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's the actual way that failures are probabilistically exposed by increased hull count.